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We find risk everywhere--from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to heartbreak, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on both the sciences and humanities to illuminate both the similarities and differences of various kinds of risk. Using conceptual frameworks such as decision theory and behavioral decision research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk and look at how scientists apply probability by combining historical records, scientific theories, and expert judgment. Perhaps more important, they show what science has learned about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse everyday examples, demonstrating how we can move from understanding a risk to making a choice to diminish risk in everyday life.
- Sales Rank: #424613 in Books
- Published on: 2011-07-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 4.40" h x .60" w x 6.80" l, .33 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 144 pages
About the Author
Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department of Social and Decision Sciences and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
John Kadvany is a consultant whose clients include the Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department of Energy.
Most helpful customer reviews
37 of 38 people found the following review helpful.
A Good Introduction to Decision-Making about Risk and What Our Choices Tell Us about Ourselves
By Doctor Moss
Oxford doesn't publish books for "dummies" -- they publish "very short introductions". And this one isn't for dummies. It's an informed overview of the elements of understanding risks and making decisions with respect to them.
For most of us, risk is something we address in an informal, rule-of-thumb manner. I think this goes for everything from the risks we run in leaving our homes every day (or even staying in them), to how we invest our 401ks, to our willingness or unwillingness to participate in dangerous sports like rock-climbing or ocean swimming, and even to business risks arising in our professional lives. We trust in our own decision-making, often with little information to go on.
We certainly pay a price. For example, if we rely on the flow of information we simply happen to receive, we over-estimate our vulnerability to violent crime, natural disasters, traffic accidents, and the like. Our information flow isn't designed as an unbiased source for risk assessment.
The authors have made careers of understanding risk. The most interesting point they make, I think, is that "societies reveal themselves by how they handle dangers." How we measure risks, including what it is that we consider risks to be risks to reveal, in action, what we value, what really matters to us. Is it life, simply put? Is it a life of a particular kind? Is it long life? Is it healthy life?
"Very short introductions" are not for professionals -- they are for the majority of us who can benefit from an explicit, reflective framework for something we don't really have an informed way of thinking about. Maybe the most valuable thing we can learn is that there are, in fact, informed ways to think about and make decisions with respect to the risks that are ubiquitous in everyday life.
16 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
Masterful overview of how different professions view risk
By David J. Aldous
This is not about data and specific advice regarding the risks that you as an individual face in everyday life (for which see How Risky Is It, Really?: Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts or The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger). Instead it is a masterful overview of how many disciplines inside academia, and professions outside academia, think about Risk nowadays. Of books I have read (on any subject), it is one of the most successful at combining abstract high-level concepts with a set of substantial real-world examples. In style it is somewhat like a well-written concise textbook rather than a "popular science" book, so it requires some concentration rather than being easy bedtime reading. In the examples it presents data but does not seek to engage any details of statistical analysis.
Regarding content, I cannot do better than compress the author's own summary: thinking about risk in the context of decisions where risk matters; creating measures of risk; understanding probabilities of risks by combining historical records, science and expert judgement; how individuals move from understanding risks to making choices; risk perception and judgmental biases; risk communication; cultural aspects of risk.
Rather than plugging one author's view, the book emphasizes the many different aspects of risk and the complexity of real-world decision making. It strikes me as ideal for the reader who already has some familiarity with some aspect of the study of risk, but who is puzzled why other people view risk differently. Because many ideas are touched upon in a single paragraph (or sentence or phrase) it might be a bit overwhelming for a complete novice, but this is a book one could reread every few years and find something newly insightful.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A good brief overview
By Donald A Duggan-Haas
This is what the title promises. It offers a concise look at the nature of risk, risk analysis and risk communication. It's a good place to start with pointers to resources for digging deeper. One disappointing thing in reading the Kindle version is that the resolution of most images was poor.
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